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Enrollment is falling. The school district has to decide which buildings to close

A Dispatch analysis of ten years of attendance data shows elementary enrollment down 17 percent, with the steepest losses on the west side.

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the consolidation plan
The consolidation plan, photographed for the Dispatch. (Samuel Okafor / The Dispatch)

In 2016, Larkspur Elementary had 512 students and a waiting list for its dual-language kindergarten. This fall it opened with 298, and the classroom that once held the overflow kindergarten is now a storage room for surplus desks.

The vote came after nearly a year of public hearings, during which the Brindlemoor Unified School District heard from more than 172 residents. Most of them raised the same concern: who pays, and when.

On a recent afternoon in Fenwick Park, the street looked much as it has for decades: standing water in the gutters, a faded sign promising improvements.

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The neighbourhoods left waiting

A glance at similar-sized towns in the region shows Brindlemoor is roughly in the middle. Hollis Bay, just down the river, spent about $61.5 million on its version.

At the heart of the dispute is sequencing. Backers of the plan want to start with the projects that are ready, while opponents would rather fix existing problems first.

Attendance at the open houses ran lower than organisers hoped: 1298 participants, roughly two-thirds of them from residents over 50, according to figures released this month.

  • Funds a 2-year pilot in Fenwick Park
  • Creates a citizen oversight panel
  • Adds 24 maintenance positions
  • Requires quarterly progress reports to council
  • Delays a planned property tax increase by one year

What the plan actually does

Public records show that consultants told the Brindlemoor Unified School District as early as October 2025 that grant money might not cover the full scope. None of that was mentioned in the public presentation.

A spokesperson for the Brindlemoor Unified School District wrote in an email that the department expected to release updated figures soon, and that residents can attend the next meeting.

Ezekiel Marsh, an organiser with a local residents’ group, has a binder of letters from the city going back to 2002. “You can watch the price go up page by page,” Marsh said, flipping through it.

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Several council members pressed staff to prepare a detailed timeline. The request was approved unanimously, but Anouk Delacroix-Hale cautioned that “a perfect plan delivered in 2031 helps no one.”

SchoolEnrollment 2016Enrollment 2026Capacity used
Larkspur Elementary41123849%
Fenwick Park Elementary34326891%
Mill Hollow Elementary44429773%
Saltmarsh Primary55136983%
Tanner Heights Elementary52934981%
Ashby Cross Elementary47036770%
Source: Brindlemoor Unified School District; Dispatch analysis. Figures rounded.

What residents said

Under the proposal, the district’s school consolidation plan would require roughly $89.2 million over 4 years, with roughly 31 percent of that financed through bonds. Finance staff calculate that the typical household would see about $8 more per year as a result.

State officials must sign off. A review is likely to last 9 months, and new conditions might add cost.

Underneath it all is a question of trust. A Dispatch reader survey in November found that just 29 percent of residents believe the city delivers projects on time.

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Nobody in this neighbourhood is asking for special treatment. We are asking to be asked.

Anouk Delacroix-Hale

Who pays

The timeline from here is a formal review by the county set for May. If approved, the first phase could start as early as late 2028.

Not everything in the consolidation plan is disputed. Even the plan’s critics agree on the expanded youth programmes, items that represent about $82.9 million of the total.

Upkeep is the overlooked line item. Cutting a ribbon is easy to fund; keeping it running rarely does, Delacroix-Hale said.

Residents of Fenwick Park organised early. At a meeting in the school gym last May, more than 120 people packed the room, and the comment period ran past ten o’clock.

File photo: vacancy
A view of the Riverside flats last month. (Samuel Okafor / The Dispatch)

A long history of delay

Critics argued that the consolidation plan kicks the hardest choices down the road. “We keep approving the easy half of these plans,” said Saoirse Lindahl, who studies regional planning at Valley Polytechnic,. “Promises do not fix pipes.”

Behind closed doors, the calculations are complicated. At least one member face re-election next year, and a few have said privately that they want amendments.

For Lindahl, that argument is personal. She has lived in Larkspur for 19 years and can still describe the meeting where the original plan was first unveiled. “I would like to see it finished in my lifetime,” Lindahl said.

Some business owners asked the Brindlemoor Unified School District to move faster. The case they made rested on one point: other cities of similar size have already done this.

Timeline

  1. June 2017: A revised plan is published.
  2. November 2019: Costs are revised to $89.9 million.
  3. January 2021: the Brindlemoor Unified School District begins a study on the consolidation plan.
  4. September 2023: Estimates rise to $21.1 million.
  5. March 2025: Residents of North Ferry lobby for a hearing.
  6. August 2026: the Brindlemoor Unified School District unveils public outreach on the consolidation plan.

What happens next

None of this started recently. In 1988, the Brindlemoor Unified School District adopted a long-range plan that set a deadline that came and went. That promise was quietly shelved as administrations changed.

Delacroix-Hale said the final version was “a starting point, not a finish line.” Speaking after the meeting, Delacroix-Hale acknowledged that the numbers could shift again before spring.

Housing advocates asked for written assurances that no one will be displaced. Officials said that language could not be made legally binding.

Disability-rights groups asked for written assurances that construction will not cut off building access. The city attorney said such a guarantee would be added.

From the Brindlemoor Unified School District filing, February 2026

Where the money comes from

The staff report found that 17.2 percent of eligible applicants earn less than the area median income. That matters because they are the least likely to attend evening meetings.

Marsh summed up the mood plainly: “Nobody in this neighbourhood is asking for special treatment. They just want to be asked before it happens, not after.”

We asked the Brindlemoor Unified School District to provide a written response. A spokesperson shared several pages of documents saying that the numbers were preliminary and subject to change.

The view from Eastgate

The Dispatch will continue to follow the consolidation plan as it develops. If you have experience with this may contact the newsroom through our tip line.

By the numbers: 8 public meetings, $78.0 million in projected spending, and a decision that may yet be challenged.

Reporting for this story was based on a review of 807 pages of public records, including residents, officials and outside experts.

It is worth stepping back, and the stakes come into focus: choices being made now will determine who can afford to live here.

Reporting for this story drew on a review of 470 pages of public records, including people on every side of the debate.

Samuel Okafor can be reached at samuel.okafor@brindlemoor-dispatch.example. Have a tip? Use our secure tip line.

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Samuel Okafor

Samuel Okafor builds the Dispatch's data projects, from school funding trackers to the annual rent survey. He believes every spreadsheet has a story and most of them have a typo.

39 thoughts on “Enrollment is falling. The school district has to decide which buildings to close”

  1. Can we please stop calling everything a "smart" something? It is a streetlight with a sensor.

    Made the apple cake twice now. Second time I used a mix of tart and sweet apples and it was even better.

    1. Fair point, and thank you. We have added a line clarifying that.

  2. My kids went to Larkspur. It breaks my heart to read this but I am not surprised.

    As a nurse at St. Aldric I can confirm the override part. The software is a tool, not a replacement for judgment.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  3. Grocery prices are absurd. I drive to the store on the east side now because it is consistently cheaper.

    Can we please stop calling everything a "smart" something? It is a streetlight with a sensor.

    1. Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.

  4. The fee change makes sense for big vendors and is terrible for small ones. Simple as that.

    Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.

    1. Fair point, and thank you. We have added a line clarifying that.

  5. The ferry is great. Took it with my dad on Sunday and he talked about the old boats the whole way across.

    My kids went to Larkspur. It breaks my heart to read this but I am not surprised.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

    1. Fair point, and thank you. We have added a line clarifying that.

    1. Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.

  6. Made the apple cake twice now. Second time I used a mix of tart and sweet apples and it was even better.

    Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  7. Does anyone know if the public comment period is still open? The city website is no help at all.

    Can we please stop calling everything a "smart" something? It is a streetlight with a sensor.

    1. Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.

  8. Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.

    Grocery prices are absurd. I drive to the store on the east side now because it is consistently cheaper.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  9. Good piece, but I think the headline undersells how bad the seawall situation really is.

    The part about the west side is the real story. Nobody on council lives over there and it shows.

  10. Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  11. I have lived here for thirty years and I have seen this exact plan announced at least three times. I will believe it when I see the crews.

    I would love a follow-up on what happens to the workers at the old plant.

  12. The fee change makes sense for big vendors and is terrible for small ones. Simple as that.

    The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.

    1. Fair point, and thank you. We have added a line clarifying that.

  13. The ferry is great. Took it with my dad on Sunday and he talked about the old boats the whole way across.

    Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.

  14. The ferry is great. Took it with my dad on Sunday and he talked about the old boats the whole way across.

    Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.

  15. Made the apple cake twice now. Second time I used a mix of tart and sweet apples and it was even better.

    Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.

    1. Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.

  16. Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.

    The ferry is great. Took it with my dad on Sunday and he talked about the old boats the whole way across.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  17. The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.

    As a nurse at St. Aldric I can confirm the override part. The software is a tool, not a replacement for judgment.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  18. Good piece, but I think the headline undersells how bad the seawall situation really is.

    The part about the west side is the real story. Nobody on council lives over there and it shows.

    1. Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.

  19. I have lived here for thirty years and I have seen this exact plan announced at least three times. I will believe it when I see the crews.

    Does anyone know if the public comment period is still open? The city website is no help at all.

  20. Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.

  21. Does anyone know if the public comment period is still open? The city website is no help at all.

    Does anyone know if the public comment period is still open? The city website is no help at all.

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