The lot at the corner of Wexley and Third has had a sign on it for two years promising “48 new homes coming soon.” The rendering has faded to pastel. The developer says the project is not dead, just waiting for the numbers to work.
Developers insist that interest rates, not greed, drive the numbers. “Insurance on this building went up 61 percent in two years,” said Desmond Kalu.
Kalu said the organisation was responding to the market. “Nobody makes a $98 million decision lightly,” Kalu said. “The customers are already here.”
The numbers behind the deal
Historically, the valley’s economy depended on three things: the port, the canneries and the rail yards. Two of those remains a major employer.
According to quarterly tax records shows that the number of new business licences in Brindlemoor declined 32.4 percent between 2019 and 2023, although the population grew slightly.
Consumers have adapted in small ways: bulk purchases represent 9.1 percent of baskets in the valley, up from 16.9 percent before prices climbed.
- Clawback if hiring targets are missed
- Tax abatement of $86.9 million over 10 years
- Training partnership with the community college
- 302 new full-time positions by 2028
- New loading facility on the east side
A changing local economy
Input prices continue to be a concern. The price of steel cans jumped 28.6 percent over the summer, and owners expect it will appear in contracts next year.
Inside the plant, the change is hard to miss. New equipment was added last spring, and supervisors say it has not reduced headcount.
The numbers are hard to read cleanly. Sales climbed 7.6 percent over the past year, but input prices rose faster, eroding margins to around 21.4 percent.
| Year | Units permitted | Single-family | Multifamily |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,627 | 687 | 940 |
| 2020 | 1,759 | 312 | 1447 |
| 2021 | 1,462 | 839 | 623 |
| 2022 | 1,891 | 618 | 1273 |
| 2023 | 1,029 | 501 | 528 |
| 2024 | 1,017 | 585 | 432 |
| 2025 | 2,119 | 659 | 1460 |
| 2026 | 1,622 | 554 | 1068 |
The long view
The deal includes a county grant worth an estimated $56.1 million over 8 years. Backers say the abatement is modest compared with the payroll. Critics are not convinced.
Over the longer term, the regional council forecast wages to rise faster than the national average, driven by lower housing costs than the coast.
Not everything is settled. The proposal leaves unclear whether the headquarters will stay local, and the company said details would follow by deadline.
Several firms have changed their model. One bakery in Copper Row now sells wholesale to cafés, which brings in nearly a third of sales.
Standing still is the most expensive option we have.
Desmond Kalu
What workers can expect
Lenders report that requests for refinancing is down roughly 27.5 percent. A commercial mortgage now comes with an interest rate near 6.1 percent, compared with roughly half that in 2021.
Not every indicator is gloomy. Healthcare employment rose 5.9 percent over the past twelve months, and hotels in the downtown core say they are seeing their busiest season since 2019.
Shareholders will consider the proposal on January 4, and a 90-day transition period would begin. If all goes to plan, the change could be finalised in early 2027.
Industry observers are more cautious. Ines Valderrama, a senior researcher at the Brindle Watershed Institute, cautioned that business investment has been uneven, and that a tight labour market may limit growth through 2028.
Following the money
Valley-wide joblessness was 19.0 percent in September, slightly above the state average, per figures from the regional workforce board.
Valderrama suggested a more sobering way to frame the decision: “The valley does not need more jobs so much as better ones.”
Executives expects revenue of $65.3 million once the expansion is complete, and cash flow stabilising near about 10.2 percent.
Labour organisers have asked the company for guaranteed hours for part-time staff. Management responded that it was open to discussions.
Timeline
- March 2017: the Valley Builders Association announces public outreach on construction.
- August 2019: Residents of Saltmarsh lobby for a hearing.
- April 2021: the Valley Builders Association begins a review on construction.
- May 2023: Estimates are revised to $6.3 million.
- July 2025: Estimates are revised to $61.1 million.
- June 2026: Funding of $23.8 million is approved.
The bright spots
On the factory floor, the response is cautiously optimistic. Entry-level wages starts at $22.10 an hour, plus a shift differential for nights. That is slightly ahead of what union negotiators had asked for.
Independent shops feel the pressure most acutely. Saoirse Lindahl, who studies regional planning at Valley Polytechnic, said wholesale costs went up 9.9 percent last year alone. “You can only raise prices so many times before people stop coming in,” Lindahl said.
Fees vary widely across the valley. At the least expensive outlet in the sample, the same set of items cost $62.81; at the most expensive, it was $110.40.
For Lindahl, this decision is personal. “If my costs go up by $339 a month, I have to find that somewhere,” Lindahl said.
From the Valley Builders Association filing, April 2026
What comes next
To Lindahl, this news is about one number. “If my costs go up by $468 a month, I have to find that somewhere,” Lindahl said.
By the numbers: 8 public meetings, $13.9 million in committed funding, and a vote that might be challenged.
The Dispatch will continue to follow construction in the coming months. Anyone with knowledge of the issue can send tips securely through our tip line.
Reporters asked the Valley Builders Association for a written response. An official provided several pages of documents noting that the numbers were preliminary and subject to change.
Samuel Okafor can be reached at samuel.okafor@brindlemoor-dispatch.example. Have a tip? Use our secure tip line.
The part about the west side is the real story. Nobody on council lives over there and it shows.
The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.
Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Can we please stop calling everything a "smart" something? It is a streetlight with a sensor.
Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Can we please stop calling everything a "smart" something? It is a streetlight with a sensor.
Fair point, and thank you. We have added a line clarifying that.
Thank you for actually putting the numbers in a table. Most coverage just says "millions" and leaves it at that.
Good piece, but I think the headline undersells how bad the seawall situation really is.
The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.
The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.
The fee change makes sense for big vendors and is terrible for small ones. Simple as that.
The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.
Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.
Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.
Grocery prices are absurd. I drive to the store on the east side now because it is consistently cheaper.
Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.
Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.
Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.
Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.
The heat pump rebate website crashed on me three times. Glad to know it was not just me.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.
As a nurse at St. Aldric I can confirm the override part. The software is a tool, not a replacement for judgment.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Thank you for actually putting the numbers in a table. Most coverage just says "millions" and leaves it at that.
The fee change makes sense for big vendors and is terrible for small ones. Simple as that.
Thank you for actually putting the numbers in a table. Most coverage just says "millions" and leaves it at that.
Can we please stop calling everything a "smart" something? It is a streetlight with a sensor.
I would love a follow-up on what happens to the workers at the old plant.
This is why local journalism matters. Subscribed again after letting it lapse.
Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.
The fee change makes sense for big vendors and is terrible for small ones. Simple as that.
Made the apple cake twice now. Second time I used a mix of tart and sweet apples and it was even better.
Does anyone know if the public comment period is still open? The city website is no help at all.
Grocery prices are absurd. I drive to the store on the east side now because it is consistently cheaper.
Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.
Thank you for actually putting the numbers in a table. Most coverage just says "millions" and leaves it at that.
Good piece, but I think the headline undersells how bad the seawall situation really is.
Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.
The part about the west side is the real story. Nobody on council lives over there and it shows.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
Does anyone know if the public comment period is still open? The city website is no help at all.
Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.
I would love a follow-up on what happens to the workers at the old plant.
Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.
Thank you for actually putting the numbers in a table. Most coverage just says "millions" and leaves it at that.
My kids went to Larkspur. It breaks my heart to read this but I am not surprised.
Copper Row Records is a treasure. Theo once spent twenty minutes helping me find a record I could only hum.
Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.
Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.
Made the apple cake twice now. Second time I used a mix of tart and sweet apples and it was even better.
Respectfully, the reporter left out that the same vendor ran the last pilot, which went way over budget.
Went last Friday on the strength of this review. The sardines were exactly as described. Dessert was also exactly as described, unfortunately.
Thanks for reading. We are planning a follow-up and would welcome tips at the address above.
This is why local journalism matters. Subscribed again after letting it lapse.
Fair point, and thank you. We have added a line clarifying that.
Good piece, but I think the headline undersells how bad the seawall situation really is.
Good piece, but I think the headline undersells how bad the seawall situation really is.
Good question. The documents we reviewed did not say, and the agency has not responded yet. We will update the story if they do.